Early Voting and Turnout

E arly or convenience voting—understood in this context to be relaxed administrative rules and procedures by which citizens can cast a ballot at a time and place other than the precinct on Election Day—is a popular candidate for election reformers. Typically, reformers argue that maximization of turnout is a primary goal, and reducing barriers between voters and the polls is an important method for achieving higher turnout. Arguments in favor of voting by mail, early in-person voting, and relaxed absentee requirements share this characteristic. While there are good theoretical reasons, drawn primarily from the rational choice tradition, to believe that early voting reforms should increase turnout, the empirical literature has found decidedly mixed results. While one prominent study suggests that voting by mail is associated with a 10% increase in turnout, other studies find smaller—but still statistically significant—increases in turnout associated with other convenience voting methods. In this paper, we review terminology ~“what is early voting?”! and illustrate the breadth and popularity of these reforms; briefly review prior research on early voting, focusing on the political arguments being made in favor of reform and the social scientific findings of the impact of reform on turnout; and finally, add convenience voting reforms to an established model of turnout ~Tolbert and Smith 2005; Tolbert, Grummel, and Smith 2001! in order to estimate their impact across the widest possible set of jurisdictions and over a 24-year period. In brief, our research indicates that only one early voting reform—voting by mail—has a positive impact on turnout. Most other reforms have a negligible, and at times negative, impact on turnout. These findings correspond with much of the literature, which shows that campaigns ~primarily mobilization efforts! and individual political predispositions are the primary determinants of turnout. Institutional reforms have, at best, a small effect, and are unlikely to solve the challenge of low voter participation in the United States.